Why Is This American Government Shutdown Different (as well as Harder to Resolve)?
Shutdowns are a repeat feature in American political life – however this one feels especially difficult to resolve because of shifting political forces along with bad blood among the two parties.
Some government services are temporarily suspended, with approximately 750,000 people likely to be placed on furlough without pay as Republicans and Democrats can't agree on a spending bill.
Votes aimed at ending the impasse have repeatedly failed, and it is hard to see an off-ramp this time as each side – including the nation's leader – can see some merit in maintaining their positions.
These are the four ways in which this shutdown distinct currently.
1. For Democrats, it's about Trump – not just healthcare
Democratic supporters have insisted for months that their party adopt stronger opposition against the current presidency. Well now Democratic leaders have an opportunity to demonstrate they have listened.
In March, the Senate's top Democrat was fiercely criticised for helping pass a Republican spending bill thus preventing a shutdown in the spring. Now he's holding firm.
This is a chance for the Democratic party to show their ability to reclaim certain authority from a presidency that has moved aggressively with determined action.
Opposing the Republican spending plan comes with political risk that the wider public will grow frustrated as the dispute drags on and consequences begin to mount.
Democratic representatives are using the shutdown fight to highlight concerns about ending healthcare financial support and Republican-approved federal health program reductions affecting low-income populations, both facing public opposition.
They are also trying to curtail executive utilization of his executive powers to cancel or delay funding approved by Congress, a practice demonstrated in international assistance and various federal programs.
2. For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The administration leader and one of his key officials have made little secret their perspective that they smell a chance to advance further reductions to the federal workforce implemented during the current presidential term so far.
The nation's leader personally said last week that the government closure had afforded him a "unique chance", and that he would look to cut "Democrat agencies".
Administration officials stated they would face a "challenging responsibility" involving significant workforce reductions to maintain critical federal operations should the impasse persist. The Press Secretary described this as "fiscal sanity".
The scope of the potential lay-offs is still uncertain, but the White House have been consulting with the Office of Management and Budget, the budgeting office, under the leadership of the administration's budget director.
The budget director has previously declared the suspension of federal funding for regions governed by the opposition party, including New York City and Chicago.
Third, Trust Is Lacking between both parties
While previous shutdowns have been characterised by extended negotiations among political opponents aimed at restoring government services running again, there appears to be little of the same spirit of collaboration this time.
Instead, there is rancour. Political tensions continued over the weekend, with Republicans and Democrats exchanging accusations for causing the impasse.
The legislative leader a Republican, accused Democrats with insufficient commitment about negotiating, and maintaining positions during discussions "to get political cover".
Simultaneously, the opposition's chief made similar charges at the other side, stating how a Republican promise to discuss healthcare subsidies once the government reopens cannot be trusted.
The administration leader personally has escalated tensions through sharing a controversial AI-generated image featuring the opposition leader and the top Democrat opposition figure, in which the representative is depicted with traditional headwear and facial hair.
The affected legislator with party colleagues denounced this as discriminatory, a characterization rejected by the administration's second-in-command.
4. The US economy is fragile
Analysts expect about 40% of the federal workforce – more than 800,000 people – to face furlough as a result of the shutdown.
This will reduce consumer expenditure – with broader economic consequences, as environmental permitting, delayed intellectual property processing, interrupted vendor payments along with various forms of federal operations tied to business comes to a halt.
A shutdown also injects fresh instability within economic systems currently experiencing disruption by changes ranging from trade measures, previous budget reductions, immigration raids and artificial intelligence.
Economic forecasters project that it could shave as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth for each week it lasts.
But the economy typically recoups the majority of interrupted operations following resolution, as it would after disruption after major environmental events.
This might explain partially why the stock market has appeared largely unfazed by the current stand-off.
Conversely, analysts say should the President carries out proposed significant workforce reductions, the damage could be extended in duration.